Anticipated Trends for 2025: The Revitalization of Entrepreneurship, Venture Capital, and Technological Innovation
1. Stablecoins Rule the Roost: Swift Turns 50, Global Payments Crumble Under Pressure
Swift, like a classic car that's never had new parts, is now 50 years old. Despite being used in over $190 trillion worth of annual cross-border transactions, it's time for an update.
Stablecoins have emerged as the smooth, efficient digital highways of the payments world - particularly for B2B cross-border transactions. While banks stick to their old systems, stablecoins have become the preferred digital highways for global commerce. Exponential growth expected by 2025.
Swift has done its job, but like your parents' vinyl collection, it's nostalgic only in hindsight. With stablecoins offering cheap, predictable transactions, businesses finally have a tool to avoid losing 3% (and their minds) every time they move money across borders. Happy Birthday, Swift. Here's to 1973.
2. Bitcoin Soars Above $500K: The Laughed-At "Digital Gold" Becomes the ETF Sweetheart
Bitcoin skeptics have had a tough year. First, ETFs showed up. Then, Trump made it a political focus. Now, rumors of a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve have sent shockwaves through the markets.
Large players - from institutions to entire sovereign funds - have been snapping up the asset's limited supply. Meanwhile, Bitcoin infrastructure is finally evolving and growing. The Lightning Network, once the favorites' pet project, has transformed into the killer app. Instant, low-cost payments? Sign me up.
Price predictions were once the domain of internet eccentrics. But here we are, at $500,000 per coin. If you sold at $5,000, you're probably scrolling LinkedIn in disgust right now. Meanwhile, new business models are thriving, built around Bitcoin as digital currency - a concept that, surprisingly, sounds almost too simple to succeed.
3. AI Investment Frenzy: The Graveyard for Independent Dreamers (Unless You're a Tech Titan)
The AI gold rush has ended - at least for independents. The good news? Tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and OpenAI are thriving in consolidating their power. Independent AI start-ups, on the other hand, have learned a hard lesson: it's tough to stand out when a trillion-dollar company is right behind you, ready to crush you.
Capital is still flowing in, but much of it feels like throwing darts at a dartboard. Offshoots and niche applications have a chance. Completely independent AI ventures? Not so much.
The industry's knowledge base remains disturbingly shallow, resulting in questionable valuations and incomplete business cases. In short: we're still in the 'guess and hope' phase of AI investing. Expect more consolidation, fewer moonshots, and a few sad souls realizing their AI "start-up" is just a fancy macro in Excel.
4. Data Centers: Because the Internet Can't Host Itself Alone
Major tech titans are on a building spree. They're planning to construct 100 data centers each, for the next decade. Why? Because videos, computing demands, AI workloads, and your endless Friends rerun are all causing massive traffic growth.
The primary beneficiaries aren't just the flashy tech giants, but also the less glamorous players: processor manufacturers, cooling system vendors, and the unheralded database architects. If you thought Nvidia's rise was impressive, just consider: 70% of their sales come from data centers.
In the modern digital economy, hosting isn't a luxury.
5. Technology Mergers: The Resurrection of Struggling Start-ups
Remember the 2020-2022 investment craze? VCs surely don't - it was a dizzying blur of video calls and questionable balance sheets. Now we're witnessing the aftermath: too many start-ups, too small, too slow, and in some cases, barely alive.
Enter: the merger strategy. PE firms are salivating, consolidating verticals and building larger, more stable companies from subscale start-ups. It's survival of the fittest in the tech world, where only the robust - or the well-merged - survive.
With billions in dry PE capital waiting to be deployed, merger strategies will dominate. It's not the end of tech start-ups; it's just the beginning of fewer, stronger ones.
6. AI-Driven Fraud: The Dark Underbelly of the Digital Revolution
Here's the harsh truth: 38% of all fraud is now AI-driven in some form. That's right - fraudsters now have AI tools that can mimic your voice, perfect your grammar, and trick your grandmother before breakfast.
Phishing-as-a-Service (PhaaS) is now a thing, democratizing digital crime. You don't need technical skills to be a scammer - just a subscription and a sinister motivation.
The cat-and-mouse game between fraudsters and cybersecurity pros will continue, but let's face it: AI has given criminals a scary upgrade. Welcome to the AI arms race, where the stakes are your identity and your bank account.
7. IPO Markets: An Avalanche of Swelled-Up Demand
The IPO market has been dreary, but hope is on the horizon. European unicorns like Klarna, Bolt, and Revolut will soon debut, and these public listings will mean substantial payouts for early investors in start-up hubs like Stockholm and Tallinn.
The US will remain the IPO powerhouse, but London, eager for attention, is making political and financial efforts to attract smaller cap companies.
1. Deficit of Rain, IPOKernel Perhaps to Burst - Benediction for Thirsty VCs
Following years of scant rainfall, the IPO dams may eventually burst open - a salutary event for VCs yearning to reclaim capital and a transition from TVPI to DPI.
2. Warfare Industry: Business Blossoms under Conflict (Unfortunately)
Once hiding in obscurity, defense technology has flowered more vibrantly than TikTok dances. Global safety concerns and ongoing battles have moved the industry into the limelight. Defense tech startups are garnering jaw-dropping valuations, and defense summits are overflowing with attendees.
But it's time to address the elephant in the room: what happens when the wars cease? Valuations based on conflict are inescapably delicate. Currently, defense tech is the life of the party - and everyone's fascinated to join.
3. Venture Capitalists Seek a "Depth of Significance"
For years, venture capitalists have showered cash upon marketing-driven startups as ephemeral as mayflies. The broadcast-and-forget approach is no longer tenable. In-depth investing now governs.
There's a renewed emphasis on addressing substantial issues - clime, health, and international infrastructure - instead of merely financing the following food delivery or music app. VCs are rediscovering their role as catalysts of progressive transformation. Label it an existential dilemma, but it's a step toward progress.
4. Low/Zero-code Software: The Fantasy Finally Solidifies
For eons, software companies peddled low/no-code solutions. In truth, it was merely marketing hype and battalions of consultants charging $300 per hour to click buttons.
Finally, the utopia has manifested. Empowered by AI, software development now takes mere moments, without the dreaded consultant lurking nearby. Businesses can finally sidestep paying for manual automation. Yes, the coincidence is not lost on us.
As we tread into 2025, the tech realm approaches a juncture. From Bitcoin's ascendancy to AI's shadowy utilizations, from IPO revivals to venture capital soul-searching, one thing is evident: technology and its purveyors are hunting for a novel tale.
Will they unearth it? Or will history resurface in the guise of exhilaration, pile-ups, and bubbles? Regardless, it will be a wild ride.
Cheers to 2025. May it be audacious, rational, and just slightly catastrophic.
In the context of the AI Investment Frenzy, introducing more capital into the industry could lead to the survival of niche applications and offshoots, but independent AI ventures might struggle to stand out against the tech giants.
During the Venture Capitalists' quest for "depth of significance," they are now seeking to address substantial issues such as climate, health, and international infrastructure with their investments, rather than focusing solely on funding marketing-driven startups.
