Investigating whether AVAX's bullish trend is strong enough for a future price surge
Avalanche (AVAX) Consolidates beneath Resistance, Awaiting Next Move
At the moment, Avalanche (AVAX) appears to be consolidating below the critical $25 resistance level, after reclaiming the $22.58 neckline. Historically, this zone has served as a turning point, and the current price action exhibits compression within a rising wedge—a pattern typically preceding volatility.
A breakout could potentially push the price up to $30, while another rejection may drag it back down to $22.50. With AVAX currently trading at $23.35 and having dropped 0.58% on the daily charts, this resistance zone takes on significant importance as it could influence AVAX's short-term direction.
Whale Accumulation on the Rise
Whale behavior has shifted this week, with net inflows rising by an impressive 191.9% over the past seven days. Coinciding with AVAX's push against a substantial resistance zone, this accumulation indicates greater whale interest. While it remains unclear whether this move is fueled by speculative positioning or long-term conviction, it does support bullish sentiment. Continued inflows could provide the strength necessary for a breakout, but if accumulation slows or reverses, the bullish movement may falter.
Retail-Driven Rally
Retail activity has remained strong. Transactions between the $1k-$10k interval increased by 282.63%, while the $100-$1k bracket saw an increase of 167.79%. Higher-value brackets above $10k have remained mostly flat or negative, suggesting a lack of strong institutional involvement. Wallet concentration data supports this, with retail holdings rising by 12.93% over the past month, while whale holdings grew just 4.38%. In other words, the recent rally has been largely retail-driven.
While such influxes can fuel short-term moves, they may lack the depth to sustain higher price levels unless larger players join in.
Speculative Activity Rises as Derivatives Volume Surges
AVAX's derivatives activity has been on the rise. Derivatives volume increased by 21.64% to reach $962.72M, and Open Interest climbed by 2.66% to $576.53M, indicating growing trader anticipation. Meanwhile, Binance's data reveals that 75.08% of traders are currently long, creating a long/short ratio of 3.01. Such an aggressive skew fuels optimism but also increases risk. If AVAX fails to break through the $25 resistance, over-leveraged long positions could unravel quickly. As a result, while the data indicates a bullish outlook, traders should remain cautious, as high expectations without confirmation can lead to volatile spikes and liquidation-driven drops.
Department of Real Estate Tokenization Initiative
Avalanche has recently announced a $240 billion real estate tokenization initiative in collaboration with Bergen County and other New Jersey municipalities, marking the largest blockchain deed initiative in U.S. history. The goal is to digitize over 370,000 property records. This initiative has been well-received within the ecosystem, boosting sentiment, but on-chain adoption has been slow, with new addresses dropping by 24.77% and active addresses falling 18.58% over the past week. As a result, while this deal is a significant milestone for Avalanche's RWA narrative, the lack of user growth indicates that sentiment has yet to translate into real network activity.
Price Projections for 2025
Analysts forecast a potential significant breakout for AVAX, citing factors such as whale inflows, retail growth, and rising interest in derivatives. By mid-2025, AVAX is expected to trade mostly in the $21–$23 range during the summer months, with average prices around $22–$23, and peaks potentially touching $23.66 by September 2025. More optimistic forecasts see AVAX reaching as high as $62.89 by year-end, driven by increased adoption, ecosystem scaling, developer activity, and institutional investment. However, market conditions, particularly Bitcoin's influence and broader crypto sentiment, will play a significant role in determining these predictions.
- As the AVAX price consolidates below the $25 resistance level, the increased whale accumulation could potentially contribute to a breakout, with a possible price increase up to $30.
- Given the recent surge in retail activity, with transactions in the $1k-$10k interval increasing by 282.63%, some believe that the retail-driven rally may lack the depth to sustain higher price levels unless larger players like institutional investors join in.
- With AVAX's derivatives activity on the rise, the growing trader anticipation, as indicated by the increase in derivatives volume and Open Interest, might be fueling over-leveraged long positions. If AVAX fails to break through the $25 resistance, these positions could unravel quickly, leading to a volatile spike and liquidation-driven drops.
- Avalanche recently announced a $240 billion real estate tokenization initiative, which, although boosting sentiment within the ecosystem, hasn't translated into real network activity yet, as on-chain adoption has been slow, with new addresses and active addresses dropping.
