iPhone 16 Sales Fall Short of Apple's Expectations, According to Industry Expert's Assessment
The base model iPhone 16 is already impressing as Apple's most advanced non-Pro smartphone, boasting features like Camera Control, Action Button, and future AI enhancements. However, market analyst Ming-Chi Kuo from KGI Securities has predicted a decrease in iPhone 16 orders for the last part of 2024 and into 2025. Kuo, who initially estimated 84 million iPhones for the tail end of 2024, has revised this figure to 80 million, suggesting a downward trend.
Now, you might be thinking, "Apple cutting orders? But didn't they just launch the iPhone 16?" Yes, they did. And while Apple has faced a decline in iPhone sales for over a year, this news doesn't signal an all-out freeze on production. Apple is still expected to churn out iPhone 16 Pro models in large numbers due to their superior displays, cameras, and processors.
It's essential to note that Kuo's predictions don't necessarily mean a significant drop in overall iPhone sales. The dip in orders may not translate into lower Q4 financials due to the gap between production and sales. The actual decrease in iPhone shipments and revenue might not become apparent until 2025.
What could be prompting this supposed drop in production for the iPhone 16 series? Kuo hypothesizes that it might not be Apple Intelligence—the much-anticipated features brought by iOS 18—that's swaying iPhone buyers. Users have to wait until Oct. 28 to get AI features like Writing Tools, and even longer for AI image generation with iOS 18.2. The widely publicized Siri overhaul, which is said to simplify data access across devices, is slated for next year.
Despite the lower expectations for the iPhone 16, Apple is still set to release the $3,500 Vision Pro—their foray into the AR headset market. However, production caps suggest that Vision Pro will remain a niche product, catering to a limited market. Could the iPhone 16's performance influence the popularity of the Vision Pro? It's too soon to tell.
A potential booster for Apple sales is the rumored launch of the iPhone SE 4, reportedly equipped with Apple Intelligence support. Additionally, Apple is said to be spinning out more AI-capable products, including an AI-enabled iPad mini and iPad 11 in 2025. Whether these new offerings will rejuvenate iPhone sales and spark interest in the Vision Pro remains to be seen.
Sources:1. Apple iPhone 16 Mass Production to Begin in August 20242. Apple's iPhone 16 Gets a Release Date, and It's Not What You Think3. Apple to Cut iPhone Production in 2025, Analyst Says4. Apple's iPhone sales declining in China once again5. Indonesia to lift 3-month sales ban on Apple, Samsung products
- Despite the estimated decrease in iPhone 16 orders, Apple is still eager to capture the future tech market with the release of their expensive AR headset, the Vision Pro.
- The tech industry is eagerly anticipating the AI enhancements promised by iOS 18, including Writing Tools and AI image generation, but Apple's CEO has delayed their release until October 2024 and later in 2025.
- The market analyst's estimated 80 million units for the iPhone 16's tail end in 2024 may suggest a decrease in production, but this figure is still significantly higher than the initial estimated order numbers.
- The future of Apple's tech product lineup, including the iPhone 16 series and the Vision Pro, hinges on the success of rumored products, such as the iPhone SE 4 and AI-enabled iPad mini and iPad 11, set to launch in 2025.
